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NOVEMBER  7.  1919 


CHAMBER    OF   COMMEI^CE 

OF    THE 

UNITED   STATES   OF   AMERICA 
WASHINGTON,    D      C. 


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SPECIAL    BULLETIN 


Relation  of  Weather  and  Business, 
in  Regard  to  Temperature    r 

The  Problem  Involved 


^^^' 


In  the  Committee  on  Statistics'  Report  of  February  24th,  1919,  on  "Rela- 
tion of  Weather  and  Business  in  Regard  to  Rainfall,"  there  are  set  forth  briefly  the 
extreme  difficulties  attending  any  intelligent  analysis  and  consequent  conclusion 
in  forecasting  temperatures  because  of  the  extraordinary  complexities  of  the  prob- 
lem. There  are  definite  records  of  rainfall  by  days,  months  and  years  at  many 
stations  in  the  country.  It  is  true  that  these  are  records  of  local  precipitation, 
and  consequently  have  bearing  principally  upon  a  study  of  the  precipitation  for  a 
certain  prescribed  section  or  region.  On  the  other  hand,  both  study  and  experi- 
ence indicate  that,  save  in  mountainous  regions,  the  precipitation  at  such  stations 
is  but  part  of  and  in  common  with  the  amount  of  rainfall  over  a  generally  exten- 
sive territorj'.  Moreover,  specifically  local  precipitation,  generally  in  the  shape 
of  summer  thunder-storms,  has  in  the  course  of  years  a  tendency  to  equalize  it- 
self bj'  a  fairly  general  average  over  a  large  extent  of  country.^ 

It  is  true,  strictly  speaking,  and  especially  for  business  purposes,  that  there 
is  really  no  such  thing  as  an  "average"  or  a  "normal"  rainfall.  At  a  station,  Saint 
Louis,  for  example,  the  precipitation  varies  in  the  course  of  years  from  25  to  68 
inches  annually.  However,  as  shown  in  the  Committee's  report  of  February  24, 
1919,  it  is  possible  from  the  study  of  these  records  of  annual  rainfall  to  make  an 
intelligent  and  fairly  approximate  forecast  as  to  rainfall  for  the  ensuing  twelve 
month?.  But  the  initial  and  fundamental  fact  of  temperature  is  that  there  is 
nothi'ii'  i^^f^nifp  about  it.    It  changes  from  hour  to  hour  and  from  day  to  day. 

in  nay  finieavor  to  analyze  the  drift  and  tendency  of  the  weather  there  must 
be  a  record  extending  over  a  period  of  at  least  thirty-five  years  in  order  to  insure 
a  iong  period  to  demonstrate  the  working  of  all  the  factors  that  enter 

ir  .er.    It  is  obvious  that  any  analysis    of   daily   temperatures    running 

o'  ig  a  period  is  so  intricate  and  complicated  as  to  render  hopeless  any  de- 

p»-  conclusions. 

Cold  and  Warm  Seasons 

The  so-called  average,  or  what  are  known  as  "mean,"  temperatures  are 
worse  than  worthless  for  all  business  purposes,  as  they  are  thoroughly  misleading. 
Years  in  which  there  are  the  most  violent  differences  in  extremes  of  temperatures 
rhow  mean  temperatures  within  a  few  degrees  of  each  other.  The  real  problem, 
therefore,  is  to  define  what  is  meant  by  a  cold  season  or  a  warm  season.  For  busi- 
ness purposes,  this  dcfiniiion  relates  to  extremes  of  temperatures  and  their  dura- 
tion. As  will  be  shown  later,  the  sale  of  certain  seasonable  articles  depends 
largely  upon  what  is  commonly  called  a  cold  spell  or  a  hot  .spell.  In  the  Central 
West  the  demand  for  ice  skates,  for  instance,  hangs  principally  upon  low  tera- 
peratu'--'  "•'>"•  »"ne  between  November  Ist  and  December  25th.  These  low  tem- 
perati  •  only  a  few  days,  but  within  that  period  they  are  very  effective  in 

cau.finK  ni  "»'<•  "f  skates,  even  though  the  remainder  of  the  two  months  may  be 
only  moderately  cold.  For  the  purpose  of  this  report,  therefore,  there  have  been 
chosen  the  exlreme  temperatures  of  both  heat  and  cold  as  recorded  at  Saint  Louis 
by  month.s  from  1R70  ♦o  191S,  inrluf^ivp.  fn  order  to  have  some  basis  of  reckoninir. 
those  winters  wh(  below  zero  are  regarded  as  "cold,"  wis 

summers  record  ir  ;  h)   degrees   are  classed   as   "hot."     The 

problem  then  elf  as  to  whether  temperature  records  in  the  past  show 

th"  "'•""•  ''■'"'  together,  in  their  extremes,  as  was  found  in  the  precipi- 

t-''  iation  of  wet  years  with  each  other,  and  of  dry  years 

Willi  i.'ai'ii  fiiMvi. 


S.tory.-of  the  Weather  Records 


«8 


Charts  C,  D,  ana  "E  *shbW*  the  movements  of  the  "Highs"  and  "Lows,"  which 
are  the  immediate  cause  of  changes  in  temperature  as  they  are  likewise  the  cause 
of  rainfall  and  of  dry  weather.  The  eas  ern  portion  of  low  barometric  pressure 
areas  in  the  United  States  are  accompanied  in  general  by  warm  weather,  while 
the  high  pressure  areas  bring  cooler  conditions  because  of  the  influx  of  masses  of 
cool,  dry  air.  The  severe  blizzards  in  the  Northwest  and  West  are  generally 
preceded  by  an  area  of  low  pressure,  usually  with  precipitation,  followed  by  a  pro- 
nounced drop  in  temperature  with  high  winds  and  clearing  weather. 

In  the  immediate  neighborhood  of  Saint  Louis,  where  the  records  which  form 
charts  B  and  F  are  taken,  hot  summers  are  usually  the  result  of  Lows  passing  to 
the  north  of  Saint  Louis  and  causing  an  nflow  of  hot  dry  air  from  the  South  and 
Southeast.  This  meteorological  phenomenon  occurs  from  July  to  September,  most 
frequently  in  August,  and  its  duration  and  severity  depend  upon  the  persistence  of 
successive  northwestern  Lows  in  connection  with  the  banking  up  of  an  apparently 
immovable  High  in  the  southeastern  portion  of  the  country,  from  New  Orleans  to 
Savannah.  This  High  furnishes  a  continuous  flow  of  superheated  dry  air  flowing 
steadily  north  and  northwestwardly  and  parching  all  vegetation  in  the  country 
which  it  traverses.  It  was  this  combination  of  the  northwestern  Lows  with  the 
southeastern  Highs  in  the  summers  of  1881,  1894,  1901,  1914,  and  1918  which 
caused  the  droughts  and  hot  winds  which  destroyed  hundred  of  millions  worth  of 
growing  crops  in  the  Central  West  and  Southwest.  In  September  when  this 
phencnienon  occurs  it  may  last  from  one  to  three  weeks  until  a  West  India 
hurricane  coming  in  apparently  from  tha  Gulf  of  Mexico,  or  a  pronounced  High 
in  the  Northwest,  breaks  up  the  southeastern  High  and  allows  the  resumption  of 
the  usual  procession  of  Highs  and  Lows  from  west  to  east. 

Temperature  and  Rainfall 

The  study  of  charts  B  and  F  seems  to  establish  very  definitely  the  relation 
of  maximum  temperatures  in  summer  with  deficient  rainfall.  In  other  words,  a 
hot  month  is  a  dry  month.  The  few  variations  from  this  seem  to  be  only  the 
natural  and  inevitable  exceptions  to  every  rule.  Chart  B  also  indicates  that  sum- 
mer months  of  high  maximum  temperatures  are  also  months  of  high  mean  tem- 
peratures. In  other  words,  a  summer  with  maximum  temperatures, — that  is,  above 
100  degrees,  is  generally  a  hot  summer,  and  the  very  hot  days  are  a  part  of  that 
particular  summer  and  not  mere  isolated  exceptions  to  otherwise  pleasant  weather. 

Careful  study  of  chart  B  brings  out  very  clearly  the  fact  that  the  same  me- 
teorological causes  which  produce  extremes  of  heat  and  cold  in  any  one  season,— 
that  is,  winter  or  summer — also  cause  their  persistence  and  their  recurrence  in 
that  same  season.  This  is  vital  in  connection  with  the  effect  of  extreme  weather 
upon  business,  as  not  being  merely  a  chance  occurrence  for  a  few  days  of  abnormal 
temperatures,  but  something  to  be  reckoned  with  as  a  distinct  weather  factor  in 
that  particular  season. 

There  does  not  seem  to  be  any  relation  between  a  hot  summer  being  followed 
by  a  cold  winter,  but  in  the  main,  cold  winters  seem  to  be  succeeded  by  cool  sum- 
mers. 

The  fiocking  together  of  hot  summers  appears  to  be  confined  to  two  of  them 
at  most.  These  are  likely  to  be  succeeded  by  a  flock  of  from  three  to  four  sum- 
mers of  more  moderate  temperatures.  In  other  words,  it  is  fairly  safe  to  reckon 
on  a  very  hot  summer  being  succeeded  in  the  main  by  one  of  more  moderate  tem- 
peratures. 

On  the  other  hand,  the  winters,  after  the  fashion  of  the  animals  in  Noah's 
Ark,  seem  to  be  associated  after  their  kind.  There  are  groups  of  cold  winters, 
often  three  or  four  together,  succeeded  by  more  moderate  ones,  though  not  so 
numerously  associated.  There  does  not  seem  to  be  any  connection  between  tem- 
perature and  precipitation  in  winter.  A  very  cold  winter  may  be  either  a  wet  or  a 
dry  one. 


We  have  then  sufficient  data  to  form  the  basis,  of  a  v?(u:Wnff.  tjieary  in  re- 
gard to  the  relations  of  business  and  temperature.  Asin^thfecasB'tiP,  Rainfall  and 
business  it  is  not,  and  cannot  be,  of  absolute  exactneiss,  biit  it  has  been  on  trial  for 
some  years,  and  has  been  found  dependable  and  reliable  about  80  per  cent  of  the 
time. 

Practical  Application 

It  must  be  remembered,  however,  in  the  sale  of  seasonable  goods  by  manu- 
facturers and  distributers,  that  other  factors  than  the  weather  enter  largely  into 
consideration.  In  clothing,  for  instance,  fashion  cuts  a  large  figure.  In  another 
line,  refrigerators  or  ice  chests,  there  are  several  compelling  causes.  They  in- 
crease in  sales  from  year  to  year,  as  population  increases,  because  they  are  both 
sanitary  and  economical;  also  because  ice  is  plentiful  and  comparatively  cheap 
on  account  of  its  being  made  artificially  to  so  great  an  extent.  Then  it  is  much  the 
fashion  at  present  to  give  them  as  wedding  presents.  Moreover,  all  seasonable 
goods  of  any  moment  and  importance  are  sold  by  manufacturers  and  distributers 
largely  on  "futures," — that  is,  much  in  advance  of  the  seasr>r  in  which  the  con- 
sumer uses  them,  and  without  any  regard  to  what  the  weather  may  be  in  that 
season. 

Refrigerators,  for  Instance,  are  larnrely  bought  by  retailers  from  the  whole- 
sale di.stributers  early  in  March  and  April  for  resale  to  the  consumers  in  June,  July 
and  August.  By  chance,  the  summer  turns  out  to  be  wet  and  cold.  Very  few  con- 
sumers buy  any  refrigerators  that  season.  They  are  consequently  carried  over  by 
the  retailers  into  another  summer  which  turns  out  to  be  hot  and  dry  and  the  en- 
tire stock  of  refrigerators  is  easily  disposed  of.  Meanwhile,  however,  the  retailers 
bought  none  from  the  wholesaler  because  they  carried  over  so  many  from  the  pre- 
vious sea.<»on.  So.  unless  the  manufacturer  and  the  distributer  keep  posted  on  such 
matters,  their  sales  are  directly  at  variance  with  the  weather  conditions,  being  very 
good  in  an  unfavorable  season  and  very  small  in  a  most  favorable  one. 

This  is  on^of  the  many  instances  where  mere  .statistics  may  be  mi.ileading 
unless  all  the  iMIerlying  facts  which  accompany  and  produce  these  statistics  are 
thoroughly  known  and  understood.  It  is  in  problems  of  this  nature  that  those 
professional  statisticians  who  know  only  figures  go  so  completely  astray  and 
consequently  draw  most  misleading  conclusions. 

Giving  due  regard  to  such  matters,  it  will  be  found,  however,  that  in  season- 
able goods,  in  the  last  analysis,  the  weather  is  still  the  dominant  factor  as  regards 
Bales. 

In  the  application  of  this  principle,  the  item  of  electric  fans  readily  illustrates 
the  theory.  The  records  for  1918  indicated  that  there  were  three  months,— June, 
July  and  Augu.st. — in  which  maximum  temperatures  of  100  degrees  and  over  were 
reached.  A  further  study  of  the  chart  also  indicated  the  likelihood  that  these  tem- 
peratures would  probably  not  be  repeated  in  1919  nor  yet  in  1920.  So  that  to  the 
extent  that  hot  weather  affected  the  sale  of  these  goods,  this  factor  would  be  less 
pronouncpd  than  in  1918. 

The  same  reasoning  applies  to  the  distributer  in  ordering  com  knives  for 
1919.  as  he  would  feel  very  sure  that  no  such  withering  of  the  corn  crop  as  oc- 
Cttired  in  .Tuly  and  Annist  would  be  repeated  in  1919,  and  to  that  extent  his  sales  of 
ttMM  jroods  would  not  be  so  large.  This  conclusion  naturally  follows  from  the 
showine  of  the  chart  that  a  summer  of  extremely  high  temperatures  is  rarely  fol- 
lowed hv  a  likf  soason. 

I  ikfwjsp,  fhp  fioaler  who  in  the  spring  of  1918  gave  his  order  for  ice  skates, 
ire  rreoper?*.  and  sleds,  could  draw  the  safe  conclusion  (as  was  done  in  actual 
prnrtire)  that  the  fmir  precedinsr  winters  where  temperatures  below  zero  were 
successively  recorded  pointed  the  wav  to  a  milder  winter  for  1918-19,  with  con- 
•eqncnt  lets  demand  for  the  goods  he  was  ordering. 

Judging,  therefore,  from  the  analogv  of  the  past,  indications  seem  to  point 
to  a  winter  (in  Saint  Louis)  of  less  severity  than  1917-18  though  of  lower  tem- 

r»:n7  is 


peratures  than  191.8-19,  and  ial  summer  of  less  extreme  temperatures  than  in  1918. 
but  on  thft  'A'hole  more  reacly  ak'n.  This  is  based  on  the  ascending  and  descend- 
ing curves  of  heat  and  cold  shoNivn  in  the  chart  in  successive  years,  and  the  fairly 
general  regularity  of  this  succession. 

If  in  the  future,  as  in  the  past,  time  gives  proof  of  the  general  correctness  of 
this  method,  the  buying  and  selling  of  seasonable  goods,  as  affected  by  the  weather, 
•hould  be  something  more  than  a  constantly  recurring  gamble  with  chance. 


Attest : 

ELLIOT  H.  GOODWIN, 

Secretary. 


Committee  on  Statistics  and  Standards, 

A.  W.  DOUGLAS,  Chairman,  St.  Louis.  Mo. 

SPURGEON  BELL,  Austin,  Tex. 

A.  ROSS  HILL,  Columbia,  Mo. 

M.  C.  RORTY,  New  York  City. 

L.  D.  H.  WELD,  Chicago,  111. 

N.  I.  STONE,  Rochester,  N.  Y. 

M.  S.  WILDMAN,  Stanford  University,  Cal. 


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of  tb«  Chamber  of  Commerce  of  the  United  States 


12 


Reports  Submitted  by  the  Committee  on  Statistics  and  Standards 

Business  Conditions  in  the  United  States,  as  of  November  29,  1913. 

The  Problem  of  the  Food  Supply,  as  to  Breadstuffs  and  Kindred  Articles. 

The  Problem  of  the  Meat  Supply. 

Condition  of  Winter  Wheat,  as  of  April  11,  1914. 

Condition  of  Fruit,  as  of  May  a,  1914. 

Crops  and  General  Conditions,  as  of  July  3,  1914. 

The  Com  Crop,  as  of  August  la,  1914. 

The  Story  of  Cotton — Its  History  and  National  and  International  Importance. 

General  Crop  and  Business  Conditions,  as  reported  December  la,  1914. 

Condition  of  Winter  Wheat,  as  of  April  10,  1915. 

Cotton  Acreage  in  1915. 

Condition  of  Fruit,  as  of  May  i,  1915. 

General  Crop  and  Business  Conditions,  as  of  July  17,  1915. 

The  Texas  Fever  or  Cattle  Tick,  September  34,  1915. 

The  Relations  of  Climate  and  Business,  December  3,  1915. 

General  Crop  and  Business  Conditions,  as  reported  December  11,  1915. 

The   Invasion  of  the  Cotton  Boll  Weevil. 

Condition  of  Winter  Wheat,  as  of  April  8,  1916. 

Condition  of  Fruit,  as  of  May  6,  1916. 

The_  United  States  and  Food  Imports. 

Cotton  Acreage  in  1916. 

General  Crop  and  Business  Conditions,  as  of  July  29,  1916. 

Reclamation  of  Swamp  Lands  and  Conquest  of  the  Malaria-Bearing  Mosquito. 

The  Story  of  Irrigation,  being  the  Civilization  of  the  Desert. 

Crops  and  General  Conditions,  as  of  December  2,  1916. 

Dry  Farming,  April  20,  1917. 

Condition  of  Winter  Wheat,  as  of  April  28,  1917. 

Condition  of  Fruit,  as  of  May  12,  1917. 

Economic  Significance  of  the  State  University,  July  30,  1917. 

Crop  and  General  Business  Conditions,  as  reported  July  21,  1917. 

Crop  and  General  Business  Conditions,  as  reported  December  8,  1917. 

The   Economic   Value  of  Negro   Education,  March  25,  1918. 

The  Sheep  and  Wool  Industry  in  the  United  States,  March  26,  1918. 

Condition  of  Winter  Wheat,  as  of  April  20,  1918. 

Condition  of  Fruit,  as  of  May  35,  1918. 

Crops  and  General  Conditions,  as  of  August  10,  1918. 

Crops  and  General  Conditions,  as  of  December  14,  1918. 

Condition  of  Winter  Wheat,  as  of  December  14,  1918. 

Relations  of  Weather  and  Business  in  Regard  to  Rainfall,  February  14,  1919. 

Condition  of  Winter  Wheat  as  of  April  19,  1919. 

Condition  of  Fruit,  as  of  May  31,  1919. 

Crops  and  General  Conditions,  as  of  August  i6,  1919. 

Relation  of  Weather  and  Business  in  Regard  to  Temperature,  November  7,  1919. 


Gaylord  Bro». 
Makers 

Syracuse,  K.  Y. 
MI  ja  21.  ID 


;;.i  I 


us- 


UNIVERSITY  OF  CAUFORNIA  UBRARY 


■^v^' 


I  NIVEHSITY  OP  CALIFOBNIA  LIBRARY 
BERKELEY 

THIS  BOOK  IS  DU^N  THE  LAST  DATE 
STAMPED  BELOW 

wplration  ^  loan  plri^    '  application  i.  made  before 


MAY  1   1925 


OCT  15  1W0 


